Affluent investors look for a drop in unemployment and rising GDP. What will it take to convince them the U.S. economy is improving?
Affluent investors – who tend to have high exposure to equities - are benefitting from stock market highs, but look to better job and economic productivity numbers to signal a sustained recovery to the U.S. economy, according to a new study from Spectrem’s Millionaire Corner.
More than three-fourths indicate they will base their outlook for the U.S. economy on lower unemployment levels, and 69 percent indicate they are looking for accelerated growth in the gross domestic product or GDP, according to our latest ezine on risk tolerance among high net worth investors. Only half see a rising stock market as a sufficient indicator that the economy is well on its way to recovery.
The largest share of investors (41 percent) believe the unemployment needs to be between 5 percent and 6 percent to signal a recovery, and one-third believes unemployment needs to fall below 4 percent and 5 percent. Aggressive investors – who are willing to put a significant share of assets at risk in return for potentially high yields – place more weight on lower unemployment levels than moderate and conservative investors.
Three-in-ten affluent investors indicate GDP growth of 3 percent to 4 percent a year will signal the U.S. is in a sustained economic recovery, while 31 percent looks for a 4 percent to 5 percent annual increase in GDP and 23 percent indicates the GDP needs to grow by more than 5 percent a year to pull the U.S. economy out of the woods. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 1.8 percent in 2011 and 2.2 percent in 2012.
Are affluent investors confident the economy will realize these goals anytime soon? Only 15 percent believes the economy will improve significantly in the next three months, but 60 percent believes things will be looking better within the next 48 months.